Chris Howard, Gartner's chief of research, explains the Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, saying that AI continues to be one of the most dominant topics Gartner covers.
"There's a trigger that happens, and people become interested in this technology; it reaches a Peak of Inflated Expectations and eventually comes off of that peak into the Tropic Disillusionment, where the work happens. Then, we might reach the plateau of productivity. And the AI Hype Cycle is how fast things are moving through it, partially because of the amount of investment that's been happening over the last year and a half, two years. Now, GenAI, as you're probably feeling, generative AI, is past the Peak of Inflated Expectations and starting to go into the trough," he explained.
He further explained that the Trough of Disillusionment is not dark or dangerous, but rather "the place where we figure out how to make something work or not, what it is, or not, where the hard work takes place, where the other dependencies are and so on."
Trough of disillusionment
American researcher and professor Donald Norman said, "Things get easier to use by becoming more complex inside." Howard posits that the complexity in the Trough of Disillusionment is right on the surface, as things have not settled in yet, which is confusing.
"This idea of balancing complexity and simplicity is one I've also been thinking about lately because things feel complex now. And what are those things that we can do to simplify, and how much simplification can we expect?" Howard said.
Originally posted on Gartner.
